Host and viral traits predict zoonotic spillover from mammals Author Olival, Kevin J. Author Hosseini, Parviez R. Author Zambrana-Torrelio, Carlos Author Ross, Noam Author Bogich, Tiffany L. Author Daszak, Peter text Nature 2017 2017-06-21 546 7660 646 650 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature22975 journal article 10.1038/nature22975 PMC5570460 28636590 6467569

Extended Data Table 1 | Summary of best-fit GAMs for total and zoonotic viral richness per wild mammal species, and probability of a virus being zoonotic

Term	Value	Z statistic	Chi-sq statistic	P-value	Effective Degrees of Freedom	Total Dev. Explained	Relative Dev. Explained
Models were selected separately using the entire dataset and a stringent dataset that excluded host–virus associations detected by serology. Variables are sorted by relative per cent deviance explained with in each model.
Total Viral Richness Model (all data, n=576 species)						49.2%
Intercept	0.52	7.43		<0.001
Disease-related publications (log)			1846.57	<0.001	5.55		64.8%
Mammal sympatry (>20% range overlap)			301.38	<0.001	5.16		10.1%
Order CHIROPTERA			155.12	<0.001	1		9.9%
Order RODENTIA			95.49	<0.001	1		4.8%
Order PRIMATES			34.4	<0.001	0.94		2.5%
Phylogenetically-corrected body mass			216.42	0.009	3.82		1.9%
Order CETARTIODACTYLA			24.37	<0.001	0.94		1.8%
Geographic range (log)			18.93	0.025	3.58		1.6%
Order PERISSODACTYLA			9.95	0.001	1		1.4%
Order EULIPOTYPHLA			5.87	0.009	0.85		1.1%
Total Viral Richness Model (stringent data, n=575 species)						35.8%
Intercept	-0.47	-5.31		<0.001
Disease-related publications (log)			923.02	<0.001	4.98		53.6%
Order RODENTIA			129.28	<0.001	0.98		12.6%
Order CHIROPTERA			109.23	<0.001	1		12.2%
Order PRIMATES			85.12	<0.001	1		11.8%
Mammal sympatry (>20% range overlap)			44.96	<0.001	4.69		3.9%
Phylogenetically-corrected body mass			9.65	0.036	3.51		2.8%
Geographic range (log)			11.14	0.079	2.66		1.5%
Order CINGULATA			0.87	0.286	0.76		0.6%
Order EULIPOTYPHLA			1.21	0.151	0.59		0.4%
Order PERAMELEMORPHIA			0.74	0.307	0.7		0.4%
Order SCANDENTIA			0.94	0.13	0.41		0.3%
Proportion Zoonoses Model (all data, n=584 species)						82.0% (number of zoonoses) 33.0% (proportion, w/offset)
Intercept	-0.34	-8.57		<0.001
Order CETARTIODACTYLA			27	<0.001	0.88		36.3%
Phylog. dist. from humans (log, cytb tree)			12.7	0.002	1.88		17.0%
Urban to rural human population ratio in species range (log)			10.01	0.002	1.25		13.0%
Disease-related publications (log)			5.81	0.017	1.2		7.7%
Order CHIROPTERA			4.43	0.015	0.71		6.5%
Order PERISSODACTYLA			3.28	0.039	0.76		6.4%
Order SCANDENTIA			0.81	0.311	0.79		5.3%
Order PERAMELEMORPHIA			0.76	0.323	0.78		4.8%
Order DIPROTODONTIA			0.72	0.194	0.43		1.7%
Hunted species, IUCN			0.75	0.167	0.36		1.3%
Proportion Zoonoses Model (stringent data, n=576 species)						23.6%
Intercept	-1.35	-22.66		<0.001
Phylog. dist. from humans (log, cytb tree)			56.13	<0.001	2.36		34.5%
Order CETARTIODACTYLA			22.93	<0.001	0.94		28.0%
Urban to rural human population ratio change, 1970-2005			16.88	0.002	4.05		19.6%
Order PERISSODACTYLA			0.86	0.308	0.83		5.0%
Change in human population density in range, 1970-2005			3.16	0.132	1.47		4.3%
Disease-related publications (log)			5.03	0.014	1.21		3.8%
Order DIPROTODONTIA			2.39	0.066	0.71		2.8%
Phylogenetically-corrected body mass			0.12	0.294	0.12		1.1%
Order LAGOMORPHA			0.7	0.196	0.42		0.9%
Order PRIMATES			0.62	0.097	0.28		0.1%
Viral Traits Model (all data, n=464 viruses)						27.2%
Intercept	-1.59	-5.69		<0.001
Max phylogenetic host breadth w/out humans, (log, cytb tree)			44.91	<0.001	2.94		45.6%
Number of publications (log)			35.83	<0.001	3.28		37.4%
Cytoplasmic replication			10.96	<0.001	0.86		9.2%
Vector-borne			4.9	0.014	0.75		4.6%
Envelope			0.88	0.166	0.46		2.3%
Average genome length (log)			0.12	0.266	0.09		0.9%
Viral Traits Model (stringent data, n=408 viruses)						21.1%
Intercept	-2.23	-7.51		<0.001
Number of publications (log)			29.51	<0.001	2.64		53.1%
Max phylogenetic host breadth w/out humans, (log, cytb tree)			15.75	<0.001	2.53		25.5%
Cytoplasmic replication			10.33	0.001	0.88		17.5%
Vector-borne			1.87	0.085	0.6		3.9%