What Will the Future Bring for Biological Invasions on Islands? An Expert-Based Assessment Author Lenzner, Bernd 0000-0002-2616-3479 Department of Botany and Biodiversity, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria bernd.lenzner@univie.ac.at Author Latombe, Guillaume Department of Botany and Biodiversity, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria Author Capinha, César Centro de Estudos GeogrAEficos, Instituto de Geografia e Ordenamento do Território, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal Author Bellard, Céline 0000-0003-2012-1160 Universite Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Ecologie Systematique Evolution, Orsay, France Author Courchamp, Franck 0000-0001-7605-4548 Universite Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Ecologie Systematique Evolution, Orsay, France Author Diagne, Christophe 0000-0002-6406-1270 Universite Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Ecologie Systematique Evolution, Orsay, France Author Dullinger, Stefan Department of Botany and Biodiversity, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria Author Golivets, Marina 0000-0003-1278-2663 Department of Community Ecology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Halle, Germany Author Irl, Severin D. H. 0000-0002-1734-8607 Biogeography and Biodiversity Lab, Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe-University Frankfurt, Frankfurt, Germany Author Kühn, Ingolf 0000-0003-1691-8249 Department of Community Ecology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Halle, Germany & Department of Geobotany and Botanical Garden, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany & German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany Author Leung, Brian 0000-0002-8323-9628 Department of Biology, McGIll University, Montreal, QC, Canada Author Liu, Chunlong 0000-0002-3376-4555 Departament de Ciencies Ambientals, Facultat de Ciencies, Universitat de Girona, Girona, Spain Author Moser, Dietmar Department of Botany and Biodiversity, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria Author Roura-Pascual, Núria 0000-0003-0025-2972 Departament de Ciencies Ambientals, Facultat de Ciencies, Universitat de Girona, Girona, Spain Author Seebens, Hanno 0000-0001-8993-6419 Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Frankfurt, Germany Author Turbelin, Anna Universite Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Ecologie Systematique Evolution, Orsay, France Author Weigelt, Patrick Biodiversity, Macroecology and Biogeography, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany Author Essl, Franz Department of Botany and Biodiversity, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria text Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 2020 280 2020-09-04 8 1 16 https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2020.00280 journal article 10.3389/fevo.2020.00280 2296-701X 14743920

TABLE 4 | Proportional odds models, analyzing how strongly an increase in alien species richness in the 21st century will affect different (A) island types, (B) island systems, and (C) island habitats.

(A) Island type
	Odds Ratio	CI	p
Predictors
Atoll	3.54	2.16–5.81	<0.001
Continental Island	3.43	2.12–5.57	<0.001
Oceanic Island	16.47	8.88–30.58	<0.001
Threshold coefficients:
Low| Medium	0.37	0.26–0.54	<0.001
Medium|Stron	2.7	1.87–3.91	<0.001
(B) Island system
	Odds Ratio	CI	p
Predictors
Freshwater	5.98	3.56–10.04	<0.001
Marine	5.31	3.19–8.83	<0.001
Terrestrial	11.86	6.64–21.18	<0.001
Threshold coefficients:
Low| Medium	0.38	0.27–0.56	<0.001
Medium|Strong	2.6	1.79–3.76	<0.001
(C) Island habitat
	Odds Ratio	CI	p
Predictors
Agricultural Land	3.28	2.01–5.37	<0.001
Mountain and Alpine	2.01	1.25–3.24	0.004
Wet/Cloud Forest	3.61	2.22–5.87	<0.001
Coastal (terrestrial)	6.71	4.02–11.20	<0.001
Dry Forest	4.3	2.64–7.01	<0.001
Marine	3.89	2.40–6.31	<0.001
Natural Grassland	3.37	2.08–5.44	<0.001
(Semi-) Deserts	0.8	0.50–1.28	0.35
Settlements	2.46	1.51–4.01	<0.001
Shrubland	3.32	2.07–5.34	<0.001
Wetlands	5.73	3.46–9.48	<0.001
Threshold coefficients:
Low| Medium	0.37	0.26–0.53	<0.001
Medium|Strong	2.67	1.89–3.79	<0.001